Title: Europe Is Running Out of Fuel w/ Richard Wolff
Show: The Deep Focus Show
Date: 2026-04-17
URL: https://youtu.be/lffVtXOhGXY
Duration: 31:00

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[00:03] Picking a fight with Iran at this time means that the United States, which they know, is basically having a war with Russia and China. And that's not a good idea because those societies are equipped to fight a lot longer than the United States given everything we've seen in previous wars that these countries have gotten involved in. Bad choice, bad timing.

[00:39] >> I am John Kiriakou and welcome back to Deep Focus. Well, there's so much in the news, whether it's Iran, Gaza, Ukraine, whatever it is, oil, it all comes back to economics. It really does. There was breaking news this morning. We're filming this on April the 16th. Breaking news this morning that Europe, listen to this, how crazy this is. Europe will run out of jet fuel in 6 weeks.

[01:10] That would lead to an economic calamity that will ripple across the entire planet. How in the world do we negotiate something like this? How do we get out of something like this? Well, I know one man who has some answers. That's Dr. Richard Wolff. Professor Wolff is host of the Economic Update. He's director of Democracy at Work. He's professor emeritus of economics at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst and he's also a visiting professor at the New

[01:40] School in New York. Professor, welcome back. It's always such a pleasure to to have you and I always enjoy it so much not just because you're from Youngstown, Ohio, but because you speak in plain English and Americans can understand you. Good to have you back. >> Thank you very much, John. You're generous and I appreciate your kind words. >> Uh thank you very much for joining us. I want to start with this craziness from the Associated Press that Europe will be out of jet fuel in 6

[02:11] weeks. Is there a precedent for something like that? And whether there is or not, uh how do we fix this? >> Well, I don't know if there's a precedent for it or not. Certainly not very many. This is a in many ways a newer version at least of something that we've never seen before. Um let me explain why it's happening in the way that I think people need to understand.

[02:42] For most of the last 75 years, the United States has been either an enemy of Iran or a critic or for a short time, the years when the Shah of Iran ran that country, a subordinate ally who who so upset the Iranian people that when they finally overthrew the Shah and drove him out of

[03:12] the country, he retired to the United States cuz that was who he had protected him. That's what who got him into power by overthrowing the famous Mosaddegh revolution back in 1953. And then in in '79 and so on with people who will remember uh when the the Ayatollahs took over the running the country, uh the United States tried in every which a way

[03:44] to make it difficult for them, to overthrow them, to challenge them, to fund and support people inside Iran against the government. That is nothing new. And most of the time the United States was more or less successful. In that is it kept that country off its toes. It made it difficult for Iranians to do many things. It caused a large number of

[04:14] Iranian professionals to leave the country and take up residence. There are huge communities of Iranians in the United States. For example, in the Los Angeles area, but likewise in Paris and likewise in London. It was a country that was besieged and it culminated last June now about a little less than a year ago when the United States and Israel attacked uh with bombs and missiles and all the rest of it um in what came to be known as the

[04:46] 12-day war. All right. So, here's the point. Iran has had a very long time and a very bitter experience trying to figure out how to cope with the enmity of the United States to which I should add the even more ferocious enmity of Israel. Israel has

[05:17] designated Iran as its most horrible adversary in the Middle East, etc., etc. And so, they've been at each other for a long time. Okay. What has now happened and what Americans have to try to understand, whatever their likes or dislikes might be, is that the Iranians finally figured out a strategy

[05:48] to confront the United States and Israel. They knew they could not compete on the level of military confrontation. The United States spends more on military than the next eight or nine countries combined. Um Iran with its 90 million people is no match for the United States with three Excuse me, 330 million people and a budget 100 times larger. So,

[06:19] they had to come up with a different strategy. They did. And so far, it is working better than anyone, including the Iranians, had foreseen. And I'm now going to show you how it explains the absence of jet fuel for Europeans. What the Iranians decided they would do if ever again they were attacked by the United States or Israel,

[06:50] overtly, covertly, or anything else, is they would use what is by far their greatest weapon. And that is to close the Strait of Hormuz. In other words, they are in a position, I won't bore you with the maps. I think many people have now seen them. Uh this passageway, very narrow, between the uh Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf, through which about 20% of the world's

[07:21] oil is transported, and a good percentage of derivatives of oil, things like jet fuel, um things like plastic, and things like fertilizers. >> Fertilizer. 65% of the world's fertilizer. >> Yeah, made out of petroleum, shipped out of that area uh where the petroleum is is brought up. They said they would do that. And when the United States and Israel attacked them roughly 45 days ago,

[07:54] that's what they did. They said, "We are not allowing Israeli ships to go through here people who ships registered to Israeli owners ditto for the United States and ditto for any other country that allies with Israel and the United States in this war against us. We are also going to show you that one of the things we've developed is a technology of drones and of missiles

[08:25] and a specially effective way of hiding the launchers for them so that you cannot you can get some of them, but you cannot prevent us from sending these things to your country and doing damage. Okay, the United States and Israel knew all of that. They attacked anyway. That has to do with the American government and the mechanisms in Trump and the other folks that make those

[08:57] decisions. And then the Iranians did what they said they would do. They closed the Strait of Hormuz except to a trickle of ships mostly carrying Iranian oil to their conventional customers. And I should make a footnote people should learn. The customers are Asia mostly. So Japan, South Korea, Philippines, and China are the buyers of Iranian oil. Not that they can't get oil elsewhere.

[09:29] They can and they're doing that now. But 20% is a large amount of oil and a disproportionate amount of that went to those Asian countries. But one of the things you can't do is take oil from Iran to Europe. That requires you to move ships and so forth. You can't do it. So, here's an irony you should think about.

[09:59] Iran closed the strait thereby controlling the movement of oil thereby depriving all kinds of receivers of oil from the Middle East from getting it. Not just oil from Iran, but oil from other parts of the Gulf states, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman that have to go through uh to get to where they can be used.

[10:29] And what the consequence of this was that the oil that needs to be refined to produce jet fuel wasn't arriving at the factories that convert regular petroleum to jet fuel. The Europeans uh here's crucial. The Europeans had not been told by the United States about the attack. They had not been warned. They had not

[11:01] had time to prepare. So, they didn't. Now, partly that's cheapness on the part of the European airlines. They don't want to spend very expensive. They don't want to spend money on jet fuel and store it for long periods of time. Uh they assumed the United States would coordinate with them in this war. They were wrong. Mr. Trump didn't. That is one of the reasons why two things. One,

[11:33] that when Mr. Trump asked them for help halfway through the war, they basically said no. The British let them use the base in Cyprus, but mostly did not uh support. And Mr. Trump attacked the Europeans as he has done before, furious that they weren't helping him, utterly oblivious to the reason why, which they told him. Okay, so footnote,

[12:05] the anger, the bitterness of the Europeans against the United States cannot be over straight over stressed. >> Yes. >> NATO is dead, the alliance is dead, and the blame for it is 100% on the US. That's the view in Europe. And most others who look at this see, Mr. Trump did not sit down with the work out all that crap about tariffs a year ago.

[12:35] And he didn't do it again this time. And then it becomes doubly important because Iran developed missiles that it can send a very wide range, hundreds of kilometers. That's why it was able to destroy or damage the 13 American military bases that are in the Gulf region. That's why it was able to penetrate very severely the Iron Dome and David's Sling, the two

[13:08] protective mechanisms the Israelis have developed. So, they would turned out to be vulnerable. Those missiles could go to Europe. They could hit European cities. So, not to involve the Europeans in a war where they were directly vulnerable is driving them crazy with anger and bitterness at being treated in this way. And America are going to have to deal with that for years to come. That is a

[13:40] very serious business because the leaders of of Britain, France, and Germany, the three major countries, those leaders are all getting between 10 and 20% poll ratings in their polling. They are very unpopular. They are not going to be in power much longer. And what's driving them out is a popular opinion that blames them for being lackeys of Mr. Trump. And so this is

[14:12] We're going to come back You and I going to come back and talk about this in the future. Let me go back Let me go back to the very briefly on the on on on the Iranian thing. The Iranian strategy And I know this is going to scare people, but if you didn't want me to tell you the truth, you wouldn't have asked me, right? So, um The Iranian strategy is to say the only way we can fight the United States, the only way we can defend ourselves,

[14:42] having been victimized over and over again for 75 years, is if we drive the United States out of the Middle East. Close your 10 bases. Forget about it. You you We're not going to let you stay here. We're going to bomb your bases if you rebuild them. It's going to become wildly more dangerous, wildly more expensive for you to maintain this empire in this part of the world.

[15:16] And to show you how serious we are, you can bomb us till you're blue in the face. Won't make any difference. By the way, they have proven in 40 days that that's not an empty threat. That's what they did. You can bomb the school with the 150 girl students that we saw or any or any of the the bridges or whatever it is you're going to do. We will accuse you of being war criminals. Uh we're not going to cave in.

[15:47] But here's more. We're not going to let oil through the the Strait of Hormuz. And we understand that that's going to drive the price of oil up. By the way, that's already happened. The price of oil is well in excess of $100 a barrel, whereas before it was around 60 to 70 dollars a barrel. That That's a That's a 50% increase, and it is rising as we speak right now. Okay, that's going to produce likely in

[16:20] the world a recession. If it goes on long enough, and by long enough I only mean a few more months, it will produce a global depression. And if you're wondering, could it be as bad as 1929? I'm here to tell you, wearing my cap as professional economist, it could. Will it? I don't know. Could it? Absolutely. And that means here's what the Iranians are telling us.

[16:52] We don't want to stop oil going through. We didn't stop it. Oil Something on the order of hundreds of ships went through every day. For years and years, we were always there. We could have stopped it. We have the missiles, we have the drones, we have the boats, we're right there. I mean, it would have been childishly We didn't do it. So, we're not closing the strait. American and Israel, they're the ones who made the decision that led to the

[17:24] show. We're letting the world know we are prepared to let this play out. To close the strait, drive up the price of oil and also natural gas. And the whole world is going to have to face either you help us and you get the United States to change its ways,

[17:55] in which case the problem is solved. The strait opens, the oil flows, and we're back in business. Or you choose not to help us. You don't care. All right? Then you will live with higher energy prices and all that that may entail for your society, for the recession, the depression, and all the rest of it. The Iranians don't wish the world harm. The Iranians are not

[18:27] inconsiderate of global opinion, but they're explaining they have no other option. And given the attack and the ferocity of the attack both from Israel and from the United States, it's hard to argue against their taking this step uh whether or not you credit their statements that it is nothing they wanted to do. >> Right. I have another Iran question for you in

[18:58] a moment, but first I want to read a message from our sponsor. Last week the Treasury Department put out its financial report for 2025, almost 2 weeks ago now. Almost no one covered it. Certainly no one's talking about it. But here's what it said. The United States has $6 trillion in assets, $47 trillion in debt. The US government is $41 trillion in the hole overall. That's not my opinion. Those are the Treasury Department

[19:29] numbers. A few days ago, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the debt path, quote, will not end. His words. Meanwhile, the big beautiful bill added $3 trillion more in debt, and we're now paying more than a trillion dollars a year in interest on the national debt. I spent almost 15 years in the CIA. I learned how to spot problems before they blew up. Well, right now, central banks all over the world are buying gold as fast as they can. China, Poland, India, they see what's coming.

[20:00] I've put together a free report along with American Alternative Assets called the Big Beautiful Bubble. It shows what's really going on and how to protect your savings before this gets any worse. So, go to johnlovesgold.com for your free copy. That is johnlovesgold.com. Or, if you prefer, call 1-888-G-O-L-D-0-5-3. Professor, I wanted to ask one other Iran question. Um

[20:30] the mainstream media seems to be surprised that the Iranians have been able to survive so well or so far as well as they have. Well, I have a very dear friend who travels to Iran regularly. And, there's one recurring theme every time she comes back from one of these trips. And, that is with crippling, punishing sanctions on Iran, over the course of so many years, the Iranians have become utterly self-sufficient. If they need something

[21:01] that they can't import from Russia or China or India, they manufacture it themselves. Do you think they'll be able to keep this up in the face of these hostilities from the United States and Israel? Can they Can they get through this conflict economically? >> I think now they can and and not to take away from what you just said or to take away in any way from their resourcefulness. Many Americans do not understand that Iran is a well-industrialized

[21:32] country. They have and have had for a quite quite a while a serious commitment to developing an industrial economy. So, it's not like what Vietnam was or Afghanistan was or Iraq was. It's These are This is a different story, number one. So, my first answer is yes, I think they can probably carry on for quite a while. But, I want people to understand cuz it Americans just they don't know their geography.

[22:03] Iran and Russia share an immense coastline of the Caspian Sea. And they That's an internal ocean in that part of the world. And they can use that ocean to carry on whatever trade they need. Do the Iranians need something that gets bombed? The Russians put it on a boat and in in a day and a half, it's done. It's in Iran. Tehran is close to the Caspian

[22:34] Sea. So, very easy to to do this. If the If the Iranians run out of missiles and drones, by the way, no sign of it, but if they were, that's another Russia has shown us in Ukraine that it has limitless amounts of those things. And if Russia ever ran out, Russia and China have thousands of miles of shared border. China, and I want to quote you Paul

[23:06] Krugman from the other day, China's manufacturing base is larger than that of the United States, Britain, France, and Germany combined. Right? So, the powerhouse manufacturing in the world today is China, not anybody else. China can produce missiles and drones forever. And it can ship them easily to Russia, which can ship them easily to Iran.

[23:39] Picking a fight with Iran at this time means that the United States, which they know, is basically having a war with Russia and China. And that's not a good idea because those societies are equipped to fight a lot longer than the United States, given everything we've seen in previous wars that these countries have gotten involved in. Bad choice, bad timing.

[24:11] >> I want to ask you also about the effect of Donald Trump's tariffs compounded on this huge rise in oil prices. Now, the Supreme Court ruled that most of these tariffs were unconstitutional, that the Constitution specifically says that only Congress has the ability to levy tariffs. But, they did throw the administration a bone by allowing the Trump administration temporary emergency tariff powers.

[24:43] How damaging are these tariffs on the overall economy? >> Well, they're they're not very, um, partly because tariffs being a punitive mechanism are a little bit like sanctions, another punitive mechanism. And the world has learned over the decades, in some cases over the century, tariffs are very old. Countries have been

[25:14] tariffing one another for centuries. People have learned how to evade them, avoid them, negate them, undermine them. And all of that There's a whole literature when I teach courses, there's a whole segment where I give students books and articles about how to go about and they're just collections of empirical studies of how these things work. They do damage, they raise the costs of all kinds of things, they are

[25:45] unwanted. Uh but they are not anywhere near as powerful as the politicians who use them. People should remember much of what goes on in Washington is carefully choreographed political theater. Mr. Trump wanted to show the world that we're in charge. And I can put a tariff on you like Thor, you know, with a lightning bolt

[26:17] hitting your tree and knocking it down. Uh it was a demonstration of power and importance. And you might ask yourself cuz that would be a good question. Why is the president of the United States in such a rush to do it without getting the congressional approval? He could have got it. His party controls both houses. He could have got it. He didn't. Took an enormous chance that somebody would contest it. That was certain. And that the Supreme

[26:49] Court would have to decide it. That was likely. and he couldn't be sure. Why would he do that? Because it's theater. Because there's something that the American people, he hopes, will respond to. Well, I think I know what that is. And that is that the American empire, and with it American capitalism, are now declining. In the 20th century, we were going up. And that was a good ride for many of us.

[27:20] But now we're going down. That's never the same experience. We are going down. And the decision of our leaders is to pretend otherwise. Uh it's what psychologists call denial. So, during the last presidential race, uh neither Trump nor Biden nor Harris ever said a word about a declining empire. You know, we lost the war in Vietnam. We lost the war in Afghanistan. We lost the war in Iraq. We're losing the war in

[27:52] Ukraine. You ought to begin to wonder what that might mean. Okay? And empires are famous for overreaching as they begin to decline, only to discover that it accelerates the decline. >> I want to ask you too about the uh the job market. February showed significant job losses, and that was a real reversal from previous months. So,

[28:22] first, I wanted to ask you what your forecast is for the next 6 months for the labor market. And if if you don't mind, I want you to also factor in, or not even factor in, but explain to us um the role of the proliferation of strikes from from Minneapolis to the to the Southern California ports, and what impact that might have on rising union membership after years and

[28:54] years of decline, on wages, and on an economic recovery. >> A quick answer to your question. Capitalism, wherever it has settled, has had an economic downturn, on average, every 4 to 7 years. Europe, Asia, I mean, I don't know. Well, that's the story. That's an average, so sometimes you're above and below it. But, if you think about it, we've had a a downturn, a crash, uh by the way, we have many words,

[29:26] recession, depression, crash, crisis, downturn, because it's always with us, every 4 to 7 years. So, we had the dot-com crash in the spring of 2000. We had the subprime mortgage crash in 2008 and 9. We had the COVID-19 uh crash in 2020. Well, do the math. It's 2026, we're due. And so, if you read the financial press, you'll see articles worrying about it.

[29:58] If you add the shock of the tariff regime, and now the shock of the oil energy explosion, and the fact that we're due for one, my prediction is, and by the way, here I agree with Jamie Dimon, the head of uh JP Morgan Chase, with whom I don't agree on anything else, but I agree on this, we're due for one. We're probably going to have one, and it could very well be very bad. If this war resumes

[30:29] this weekend, then all bets are off. Then then we could be talking about a global recession as bad as any we've had, and I want to remind people the worst one was still 1929 to 1940, a depression that lasted 11 years, whose high point of unemployment was 25%, which is six times what it is today. Try to imagine an America with six times the

[31:03] unemployment. Anyway, fear of that, beginning of adjustment to that, that's provoking employers to squeeze the workers who are beginning, interestingly, to really fight back. >> Professor Richard Wolff is host of Economic Update. He's director of Democracy at Work, Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, and visiting professor at New York uh New York's New School. Professor, thank you so much for uh joining us, and

[31:34] thanks for giving us a little bit of extra time. >> My pleasure, John. And as I said, if you want to continue, get in touch. I'd be glad to continue the conversation with you. >> I'd love it. Thanks so much.
